Wentworth – Australia 2025

I’d be interested to see, post-election, how the Labor vote in the newly added parts of Wentworth (South of Clovelly Road and west of Elizabeth Bay) will convert into the teal vote.

I’m tipping Spender will retain. Dave Sharma’s personal vote helped hold up the Liberal vote last election. This time, there is no incumbent Liberal.

Spender’s inclination to vote with the Liberals more often than the other teals hasn’t gone unnoticed either, suspect of all the teal seats they’ll throw the least at this one and mostly be happy to leave her in place for a while as the 2PP makes it a notionally Labor seat in her absence over time.

Spender will hold easily this seat is now marginal even in a good year for the libs. Tbh asap lib voters I’m happy for her to sit on this seat until parliament expands in order to keep it off labor

Maxim is right on this. Word on the inside is that Wentworth is low on the target for the Liberal Party as Spender has been quite friendly.

I reckon there will be a sophomore surge for Spender that will push her close to, if not breaking, 60% TCP

I’m sure they want it but let’s face it their is a lot more lower hanging fruit. And this one is probly a one of the bit higher hanging ones for now.

It makes me chuckle when the likes of Fletcher and some other Libs tar teals all with the same brush as wannabe Greens and all part of the same party. Yes they have a lot of common ground, yes they’re all backed by Holmes a Court but they do have their own independent streak too – they don’t all vote in unison on legislation – in this regard, negotiating with them independently and pointing out merits/flaws in legislation is key. I don’t blame the Libs in their strategy – its pretty understandable when every teal seat was once a blue ribbon Liberal one, I just think its a pretty misguided one and not very convincing in my opinion especially in this term of parliament.

On minority government, I think it really depends on how the numbers end up. If Labor needs nearly all teals, other independents and Greens to shore it up (which likely would mean Coalition got equal or more seats than Labor), sure then many teals backing them more likely may end up losing their seat the following election. But if Labor needs a lot less than the Libs do, then confidence and supply to the larger party just makes sense. Also keep in mind that they can always rescind their support during the term of parliament as Andrew Wilkie did to the Gillard government after gambling reform was dropped. 2010 is a recent example of minority government but another example would be after 1940 – independents in conservative seats backed Menzies but then switched to Curtin after Menzies was ousted as leader.

Anyway, Spender should be able to keep this seat for as long as she wants to contest it.

@WL agree on minority government
The ALP could lose 5 seats and still be way ahead of the LNP in seat count making it reasonable for the cross-bench to support them
In NSW currently the ALP is in minority by 2 seats but LNP are 9 less. Don’t think anyone is blaming the independents for any NSW ALP failings

@Wl if Labor needs nearly all the teals, greens and Independents they won’t be forming govt. If the the liberals are 6 seats ahead of them they will form govt enough centre crossbenchers will see it logical enough to back the party with the far greater seat count. If the Liberals get 71 seats it’s over.

No one believes me but In minority govt.
The only certain vote for Dutton is Katter.
Dutton ‘s nuclear fantasy will not endear him to the teals. To suggest that mps will support the partisan lean of their electorate is not true.

Looking at things it is difficult for Labor to retain its absolute majority. If a minority then this can cover quite a range.

@Mick Quinlivan I agree if we’re looking at the MPs likely to be elected.

However, if Andrew Gee gets elected then it would make the most sense for him to back the Coalition because he represents a safe Nationals seat.

But as for the teals (I’ll count Andrew Wilkie and Rebekha Sharkie as “teals” despite Wilkie being from a different era of independents and Sharkie actually being a member of the Centre Alliance party), while I agree they could support a moderate Liberal leader, they won’t support Peter Dutton. But this is kinda irrelevant since if the Liberals were moderate teals probably wouldn’t exist.

The Greens will never support the Coalition as they are extreme left. One Nation and other right-wing minor parties will never support Labor as they are extreme right, despite their base being from across the spectrum but united by some common values.

Dai Le’s vote is an important one. While she was a former Liberal member she is very much a centrist now and represents a traditionally Labor-held seat, one that also includes parts of Liverpool (an area that has become more and more Liberal in recent years and the Liberals actually did better there on the state level in 2023 than in their 2011 landslide). So given that Liverpool is now a battleground on the state level it shouldn’t bother that part of the electorate if she supports the Liberals, but it might anger those in the Fairfield part who still vote solidly Labor.

Labor should put up a high profile candidate here (as they have in the past) and have a dip at this – similarly in Bradfield, though for different reasons.

The common thread is that they are seats that Labor can win in coming cycles but they will not if the IND get totally established (i.e. with labor primary <20%). Warringah is in a similar position but it is too for gone with Zali already.

Another issue is that an expansion of parliament has to come and there could well be new, smaller, seats drawn within these eastern suburbs and north shore areas that are Labor on 2PP

@np if gee backs Labor he may as well start looking for another job like Windsor and oakshot.Sharkie has already publicly stated she will support whoever has the most seats.f Dai Le backs the liberals she will have similar issues to Gee. My opinion is Le won’t be forced to make that choice . If the liberals get into govt they will likely get it without her. I doubt Wil,ie will choose sides again not after he got burned last time. They thing he wants the most is one thing Labor will not give him because it hurts their bottom line.

High street Labor will never win this seat. If they put up a high profile candidate now they risk unseating spender and giving the libs another seat

@ high Street a smaller Wentworth would remove the Labor areas of the seat and move it back to safe liberal

Source on Sharkie saying she’ll back whoever has the most seats?

Labor might win the 2PP in Wentworth. Whatever the case I still think Spender will take the same approach as the other teals (and Haines, Wilkie) – support Labor if they are forced to choose but do everything in their power to avoid the perception of choosing as it would be the end of their political careers. The Greens WANT balance of power whereas I think the Teals dread it

Le and Sharkie on the other hand I think support Liberals but would be seen as betraying their electorates if they did so publicly (Labor won the Mayo 2PP and could do even better this time).

Can’t get a read on Gee and Broadbent’s approach to their former parties. Gee at least seems to have landed to the left of the Nats. Broadbent is a total wildcard.

Il post it as soon as I can locate it but here’s an article saying she will negotiate will Dutton first.https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-five-crossbench-mps-who-could-make-peter-dutton-pm-20240926-p5kdtb
Stegall and Sharkie also made the same statement before 2019 and Spender has made a similar statement regarding this year. Spender gave an address not o long ago at the NPC saying whoever has the most seats should get first crack. I saw zsharkie thing on the news a while ago.

Dai Le has been a bit coy about her intentions in suspect she would back the libs Wilkie has stated no deals and who can blame him after last time but he will vote on all legislation based on merit. Katter is also friends with Albo.

the Mayo result can be attributed to the swing which should come back this time. If the greens win 4 or even more this time they will demand a ministry. They should win at least 3 in my opinion. But could win as many as 7.

What constitutes the ‘most seats’? Labor vs Coalition or Labor + Greens vs Coalition?

Where Windsor and Oakeshott came unstuck is that they were in lockstep with the Gillard and Rudd governments from Day 1 – not an iota or difference. They were also smug and arrogant and loved that position in the spotlight. Who could ever forget that excruciating 17 minutes when Oakeshott was at the podium in 2010 just rambling on and not saying who he would support. Methinks the current Independents have been pretty good learners and won’t repeat that mistake.

@BNJ Broadbent won’t be elected but if he somehow is then he will support Dutton.

As for Sharkie, I think that’s just because of HTV cards. It is a blue-ribbon Liberal seat that voted Liberal from its creation in 1984 until it was lost to Sharkie in 2016.

Former Liberal leader Alexander Downer held the seat from 1984 until 2008, when he resigned and Jamie Griggs replaced him after winning the by-election. Griggs then lost to Sharkie on Labor preferences in 2016 when the NXT (now the CA) contested a bunch of seats in SA and did quite well.

Back to Wentworth, I wonder if there are many Malcolm Turnbull supporters who will vote against the Liberals because of what Dutton did to him in 2018. Turnbull had a strong personal vote here and people may still hold a grudge.

I doubt Labor would win the 2PP here vs the Liberals. The Labor vote estimate is inflated by Plibersek’s and Thistlethwaite’s personal vote and overperformance last election.

I don’t see a situation where teal independents + Haines + Sharkie + Le will look at the seat 2PP to decide who to back in a minority government. People may be spooked from the 2010 experience as Labor was in minority with the Greens and two rural independents joined them, when their electorates were conservative. What the teals and other crossbenchers could do is push for more economically liberal policies e.g. top tax bracket tax cuts, as well as government integrity or the usual infrastructure or small target demands.

They talk of horses for courses.
Turnbull was unusual in that from the 2010 election till he retired he boosted the liberal vote by approx 10% and kept that higher vote. This vote was not available to another liberal candidate. Whilst Wentworth is a lake of red surrounded by nearby Bondi Paddington Coogee Paddington this will be competitive for the the teals but out of reach for Labor
Should the boundaries change and recreate the old Phillip that seat will be marginal alp – liberals

Golly you are predictable John. I am not sure why Labor bothers trying in any seat going on your logic… Your logic of a swing against the Liberals in one election will always be reversed in the next election is brilliant. Don’t no why I didn’t think of it

But I think today even Nether Portal tops you. By his logic the 2PP count means nothing because it is all a result of evil HTV cards!!!

And this crap about Labor doing well in a Teal seat risks handing the seat to the Liberal’s is just crap. The risk is so small as to be imperceptible. And what’s the downside – you say none of the teals are supporting Labor anyway, so what would be lost?? The chance to win in 3 or 6 years time, that’s the only thing given away by not trying

@High Street – with due respect, that does sound a bit insulting and a tad bit offensive.

@Votante A recent Redbridge/Accent poll shows Wentworth to be the most progressive seat in Australia by self-reported ideology to have an underlying Coalition 2PP majority, even more progressive than many Labor strongholds like Barton and Chifley. The new areas added to Wentworth are strong progressive voting areas and will still record a very high Labor 2PP majority even without an incumbent Labor MP. Considering the Liberal Party’s 2PP majority in Wentworth is only 1.2% and the predicted backlash against Dutton in teal seats, it’s entirely possible Labor will win a 2PP majority in Wentworth at the upcoming federal election. https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Accent-RedBridge-MRP-ideology-report-v2.pdf

@Blue Not John: I do agree that teals plus Haines will support Labor if forced to choose, but then try to amend or vote against Labor on issues concerning taxes or industrial relations to avoid the perception that they are in lockstep with Labor.

@high Street there were clear issues nationwide. And history shows us that when Labor take power they get a massive swing usually due to the longevity of coalition governments that always reverse at the next when people become softer on them. That’s usually followed by a massive swing back to the coalition. And then a small swing towards labords Labor followed by a swing back to the liberals when Labor gets overly excited about winning and tries to introduce their real agenda thinking people will just swallow it like medicine.

@James (ireland) – I’m here to comment intelligently on election analysis matters. I don’t apologize for calling out partisan rants.

Even Ben Raue has in the past pointed out that the likelihood of an exclusion order issue causing a seat to be lost is minute under compulsory preferencing voting. All I then did was point out the contradictory logic on display from John – and I did this because it spreads in the community like a virus. What’s it matter to Labor if a Liberal supporting Teal loses their seat to the Liberal’s??

@John – well they didn’t get a massive swing last time – they only won 77 seats afterall. So perhaps history doesn’t always repeat so predictably as you describe. Perhaps there will not be a massive swing back – the polls don’t really show it. And you are still talking AVERAGE swings. The nation’s partisan divides are not static.

People like to say that polls tighten in the Coalition favor coming into an election. What actually typically happens is they tighten in favor of the Government.

@they did in individual marginal and safe seats